Game Preview: FAU @
FIU (Shula Bowl XXIII)
This upcoming college football Saturday brings the 23rd installment of the Shula Bowl; a rivalry matchup between the Florida Atlantic Owls and the Florida International Panthers. As it stands, the Owls have bested the Panthers 17 times across the 22 meetings so far, and they find themselves on a seven-game win-streak in this matchup. Will the tides turn this year for FIU and new head coach Willie Simmons?
Statistics sourced from Pro Football Focus
Home Team: Florida International Panthers
Overview
For this year's Shula Bowl, Florida International hosts Florida Atlantic in Pitbull Stadium. It goes without saying that FIU's football program has been in a rut, as they haven't earned more than four wins since 2019, with their last bowl game victory occurring in 2018 in the form of a 35-32 win over Toledo in the Bahamas Bowl. With the departure of Butch Davis after a 1-11 season in 2021, FIU hired Mike MacIntyre with the hopes of rejuvenating the program. However, the Panthers went 4-8 for three seasons in a row, and MacIntyre was ultimately fired.
2025 finds FIU with a new head coach in Willie Simmons, who previously worked as the running backs coach for Duke in 2024 and as the head coach of Florida A&M from 2018-2023. FIU may have lost star receiver Eric Rivers in the portal (now at Georgia Tech), but they are currently sitting at 1-1 this season and the Simmons-led Panthers are eager to make some noise in the Conference USA with an offense led by the exciting lefty quarterback Keyone Jenkins.
Florida International Offense
As mentioned, FIU's offense is led by Keyone Jenkins, a 6'0" Junior quarterback who had a solid 2024 season. Jenkins threw for 2,560 yards and 22 touchdowns on a 61.8% completion percentage, with 8 interceptions. He did well enough to confidently enter the transfer portal in the offseason and received several Power Four offers. He ultimately withdrew from the portal and returned to FIU. So far across two games, Jenkins has thrown for 314 yards on 57.9% completion percentage and has two rushing touchdowns. He will be looking to shake off this slow start against Florida Atlantic.
Keyone Jenkins | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images
Running back Kejon Owens is a key piece of the FIU offense and leads the Panthers on the ground with a 40% offensive snap share, taking 35.6% of the rushing attempts (26) for 149 yards and two touchdowns. He has eclipsed 70 rushing yards in both outings thus far on 5.7 yards per rush. Anthony Carrie and Devonte Lyons have seen usage as well, with each having 16 total carries and one touchdown, though Lyons has found more green grass ahead of him with 93 total rushing yards compared to Carrie's 62.
Alex Perry and Kyle McNeal has seen the most targets out of the receivers group with eight and seven respectively. Eric Nelson leads the Panthers in receiving yards, however, with 56 so far this season. He seems to be the big play threat, with an average depth of target of 17.7 yards along with 18.7 yards per reception. Wide receiver Kyle McNeal's average depth of target is 20.1 yards, so look for quarterback Keyone Jenkins to target him downfield against the Owls as well. Jenkins has also found Anthony Carrie to be a reliable pass catcher out of the backfield, as Carrie has six receptions for 44 yards through two games.
Florida International Defense
The Panthers defense is led by senior cornerback Brian Blades II, one of the more underrated cornerbacks in the country and the best cornerback in Conference USA in my opinion. He finished the 2024 season as the 23rd-ranked cornerback nationally by Pro Football Focus, tallying 7 pass breakups and one interception and allowing a 48.8% quarterback completion percentage on 43 targets across 12 games. For 2025, Blades II has landed on the 2025 East-West Shrine Bowl 1000, 2025 CUSA Preseason Watch List, 2025 Group of Five All-American Second Team (Hero Sports), 2025 All-CUSA Preseason First Team (Athlon Sports), and 2025 All-CUSA Preseason Second Team (Phil Steele). FIU's secondary is feisty and disciplined, allowing just two passing touchdowns so far this season compared to FAU's five.
Brian Blades II | FIU Athletics
Linebacker Johnny Chaney Jr., who was previously at Florida A&M and Colorado, has re-united with head coach Willie Simmons and has been productive in the middle of the defense for FIU so far this season. Chaney Jr., who is Pro Football Focus' fourth-best linebacker in the country (minimum 90 defensive snaps), has amassed 17 tackles through two games, including two tackles for loss, a sack, and a forced fumble. Safety Mister Clark has also been a steady contributor and is coming off of a good showing in the loss against Penn State, where he had two pass breakups, three tackles, and allowed just one reception in coverage on four targets. Florida International's defense is allowing third down conversions on just 29.6% of attempts.
Visitors: Florida Atlantic Owls
Overview
Though the Owls may be on a seven-game winning streak when it comes to the Shula Bowl, they've had some tough sledding the last few seasons as well. The 2019 season saw the Owls finish at 11-3 and win the Conference USA under Lane Kiffin, but his departure for Ole Miss sent the FAU football program backwards. Three seasons in a row of five wins under Willie Taggart were followed by two seasons of four and three wins respectively under Tom Herman (and an interim), who was fired last season after going 2-8 across 10 games.
In 2025, Florida Atlantic hired Zach Kittley to potentially usher in a new era in Boca Raton and find success in the American Conference. Previously serving as the offensive coordinator at Texas Tech, Kittley likes to conduct a high-powered, air-raid styled offense. The Owls utilized the portal well this offseason, bringing in quarterback Caden Veltkamp and wide receiver Easton Messer from Western Kentucky. They did, however, lose star safety CJ Heard to the portal (now at Vanderbilt). FAU is currently 1-1 on the season, and is eager to extend their Shula Bowl streak before conference play begins.
Florida Atlantic Offense
The Owls operate a pass-first offense, leading the country with a 67.01% passing play frequency. Quarterback Caden Veltkamp is responsible for leading this offense. The Junior is coming off an impressive season at Western Kentucky, passing for 3,097 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. He also racked up seven rushing touchdowns. His first game for FAU was a rough outing on the road in Maryland, where the Terrapins were dominant all day. Veltkamp threw four interceptions on 49 passing attempts, and totaled 228 yards. He also logged one touchdown. A bounce-back game against Florida A&M saw Veltkamp lead the Owls to a 56-14 win where he threw for 299 and four touchdowns on 39 passing attempts.
The running game for Florida Atlantic seems to be a committee approach as running backs Gemari Sands and Xavier Terrell seem to be duking it out for the most snaps and rushing attempts on a weekly basis. In the 39-7 loss to Maryland, Sands and Terrell both saw a 36.7% offensive snap share, but Terrell logged nine rushing attempts to Sands' eight. Sands did see more work in the passing game, however. In Week 2, Terrell out-snapped Sands 36 to 27, but it was Sands who had the better day on the ground and through the air, totaling 10 carries for 88 yards with five receptions, compared to Terrell's 8 carries for 30 yards with three receptions. Sophomore running back Kaden Shield-Dutton has seen work out of the backfield from time to time as well, and he logged the lone Owls rushing touchdown of the season thus far against Florida A&M.
Xavier Terrell | FAU Athletics
Western Kentucky transfer Easton Messer is clearly Caden Veltkamp's favorite target. In Week 1, Messer saw 19 passing targets and hauled in 15 of them for 87 yards. This pass-happy offense involves more receivers outside of Messer, though. Jayshon Platt, Dominique Henry, Asaad Waseem, and Jabari Smith have seen steady involvement across the first two weeks. Platt led the team in targets in the win over Florida A&M, but it was Asaad Waseem and Dominique Henry who racked up two touchdowns for the Owls in comparison to Platt's one. There are plenty of mouths that need to be fed in this Owls air-raid passing attack.
Florida Atlantic Defense
Damarius McGhee, a transfer from Kansas, and Cameron Goggins are some names to know in this Owls secondary. McGhee has two pass breakups so far this season compared to just one for Goggins, however Goggins has allowed zero receptions on three targets. Defensive back Wendol Philord is another contributor to this secondary, having allowed just 22 yards on 6 targets so far this season. Safety Chris Keys Jr. has seen plenty of action on defense as well already this season with eight tackles so far. He has seen defensive snap shares of 69.1% and 59.1% in Weeks 1 and 2 respectively.
The middle of the field for Florida Atlantic is clogged by linebackers Zyere Horton and Tyler Stolsky, a transfer from Minnesota. Horton was on the field for 78.7% of the defensive snaps in the win over the Rattlers, though linebacker Leon Hart Jr. saw healthy chunks of playtime against Maryland and Florida A&M and currently leads the team with 13 tackles. Eric Brantley Jr. is a pesky pass rusher off the edge for the Owls with three total quarterback pressures so far this season, but Wilky Denaud and Deshaun Batiste lead the way in the sack department with one each. The Owls third down defense is allowing conversions on just 30% of attempts.
Game Prediction
Team Comparison
First, let's take a look at the team comparison I pulled together:
Trench play will be a huge factor in this one, I believe. Florida International seems to have the upper hand in this department. FIU's offensive line has kept quarterback Keyone Jenkins pretty clean through two games, allowing just one sack out of 29 total pressures. The Owls defensive front has racked up two sacks and 25 total pressures. On the flip side, FAU's offensive line has allowed opposing pass rushers to bring quarterback Caden Veltkamp to the ground four times this season out of 19 total pressures. The Panthers have posted five sacks in two games and 36 total pressures. Something to note - average times to throw for Keyone Jenkins and Caden Veltkamp are 2.85 seconds and 2.48 seconds, respectively.
Key Questions
Will Caden Veltkamp be able to push the ball downfield in Florida Atlantic's past-first offense? (Veltkamp's average depth of target is 28.0 yards, while Florida International defenders aren't allowing an average depth of target past 15.0 yards.)
Can the Owls defensive front break through an efficient FIU offensive line and disrupt Keyone Jenkins and bring him to the ground?
Can Brian Blades II and the rest of the Panthers secondary contain FAU's air-raid and ability to spread the ball around to multiple weapons?
Is the Shula Bowl the matchup where Keyone Jenkins finds his rhythm?
Does Kejon Owens have another game of 70+ rushing yards to help the Panthers offense get rolling?
Which school's third down defense will remain stiff and erase short-yardage success, and which will concede first?
Final Game Prediction
I feel that Shula Bowl XXIII will see the closest margin of victory since 2016, when Florida International won 33-31. From 2017 onward, Florida Atlantic has won the Shula Bowl convincingly, with the largest margin of victory being 45 points in a 52-7 win in 2022. From a roster perspective, the Panthers may be fielding the best squad they've had in several years in my opinion. However, Florida Atlantic has recruited well to build some firepower on offense.
Two first-year head coaches... Florida International enters as 2.5-point favorites at home... Long-time Indianapolis Colt and Florida International football legend T.Y. Hilton being inducted into the FIU Athletics Hall of Fame... Florida Atlantic looking to ruin the party and extend their Shula Bowl winning streak... Saturday... 6PM... Pitbull Stadium...
The Panthers are almost there, but just not yet. If FIU can jump ahead early and then rely on their run game to chew some clock, while also remaining stalwart on defense, then maybe they have a chance. I think the first portion of this game will see a lot of "bend don't break" moments given how both of these programs have started their seasons, but ultimately the Owls will have a bit too much juice on offense and a stingy defense as well that is motivated to bring a trophy back home to Boca Raton and keep their winning streak going. I have the Florida Atlantic Owls winning Shula Bowl XXIII in a closer game compared to years past.
Score: Florida Atlantic 31, Florida International 23
-- Alex P
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